There’s never a lack of news in the financial press:  new studies, new reporting, new crises, new opportunities … it never ends.

Some of it is worth heeding; most of it is just noise. One of our roles at Hill Investment Group is to help you find the hidden gems in all that “new news.” Here are two worthy reminders that trying to pick individual stocks or forecast the market’s many moods remains as ill-advised as ever.

On the Dangers of Stock-Picking …

In his recently published piece, “Hot Stocks Can Make You Rich. But They Probably Won’t,” Jeff Sommer of The New York Times reflects on how investors may be tempted to chase surging stocks in hot markets. “But,” he cautions (emphasis ours), “before you jump headlong into stock picking, you may want to consider the odds … [O]ver the long run, while the total stock market has prospered, most individual stocks have not.”

This may seem counterintuitive, but for supporting evidence, Sommer cites a new study by Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University’s business school (my own alma mater). Sommer points out two remarkable findings from the study, often overlooked in all the excitement:

• “58 percent of individual stocks since 1926 have failed to outperform one-month Treasury bills over their lifetimes.”
• “[A] mere 4 percent of the stocks in the entire market … accounted for all of the net market returns from 1926 through 2015.”

Professor Bessembinder’s study concludes that individual stock picks are like lottery tickets. A stock picker may beat the odds and win big, but if you’d rather focus on winning sustainably while managing the risks, you’re better off accepting wider market returns.

On the Dangers of Market-Timing …

On the same day Sommer’s article appeared, The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig published a nicely paired piece, “Sorry, Stock Pickers: History Shows You Underperform in Bad Markets, Too.”

You may need a subscription to read the entire article, but the title says a lot. Based on data points going back to the 1960s, Zweig notes: “The odds of finding a stock picker who can do better in down markets have long been less than 50/50.” Not only are the odds against those who try to beat the market, the costs tend to be high in every market, up or down. So, while stock pickers often tout their ability to shine the brightest when the markets are at their darkest, the evidence again suggests otherwise.

So, What’s New?

Bottom line, a traditional active investor faces hurdles that are simply too tall to be enticing, especially when there is a more logical, evidence-based strategy to lead the way. This may not be breaking news to anyone who’s been following our work for a while, but I’d say it’s still as fresh and relevant as ever.

As parents, we commit to years of financial responsibility when we welcome our children into the world. It’s an obligation we take on willingly. (Well, most days.) But we also hope to prepare our sons and daughters for the day they start creating their own financial independence … and, eventually, maybe a grandchild or two.

To instill meaningful financial literacy takes a team approach indeed – in school and at home. It also takes the right approach. A Wall Street Journal article, “The Smart Way to Teach Children About Money,” offered some important insights on that, suggesting it’s both what we teach as well as when we teach it.

Remember those Golden Rules: Reading, Writing and Arithmetic? Surprise. We may hate to admit it, but our parents and grandparents might have been on to something when they emphasized the importance of learning the basics – walking before running.

The WSJ columnist comments:

“We focus on teaching finance in school when regular math is much more effective at helping children manage money. We cram their heads full of financial facts and strategies years before they’ll actually need any of it—ensuring that they won’t remember the lessons when they’re most needed. And we squirm about discussing our own family income and debt, giving children fears and false impressions they may never shake off.”

So how do you determine an effective way to roll out your lessons on financial literacy and have open, honest conversations with your kids about your family wealth? While every household should move at its own pace, Lisa and I decided to introduce our daughter Harper to this handy chart from the JumpStart Coalition for Personal Financial Literacy, which was included in the WSJ article.

I told Harper we would set aside time to go over each activity with her whenever she was ready to roll. Harper not only found the chart of interest, she’s been known to haul it around in her backpack. If you check out our photo of the month, we seem to have captured her attention.

While we don’t think of ourselves as the passive types, it’s interesting to see The Wall Street Journal shine its bright spotlight on passive investing and related evidence-based investing in its new series, “The Passivists.”

You can browse the entire series, or here are a couple of our favorite installments:

The Dying Business of Picking Stocks,  Anne Tergesen and Jason Zweig

News flash! “Investors are giving up on stock picking.” Our take on the matter: It’s about time.

Making Billions With One Belief: The Markets Can’t Be Beat, Jason Zweig

Featuring Dimensional Fund Advisors, with founder, chairman and co-CEO David Booth reflecting that “A little bit of judgment can make a difference.”

As the media turns its attention to the types of investment strategies we’ve been employing at Hill Investment Group since our founding, we wonder whether this will be a passing fad, a lasting improvement for investors or (as is so often the case in life), a little of both. Whatever. We’ll enjoy the wider coverage while it lasts, and still be encouraging you to Take the Long View with your investments, long after the spotlight has moved on.