Details Are Part of Our Difference
Embracing the Evidence at Anheuser-Busch – Mid 1980s
529 Best Practices
David Booth on How to Choose an Advisor
The One Minute Audio Clip You Need to Hear
Advisor or Enabler? We Like Advisor.
We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: Individual investors become their own worst enemies when they choose to play in financial markets instead of investing in them.
But here’s an interesting wrinkle. In one of his recent posts, Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig shared a seemingly contradictory stat on that, in which do-it-yourself investors came out ahead of their advisor-assisted counterparts.
What’s up with that? Are we wrong??
Let’s take a closer look at the case. Zweig’s illustration compares investor experience in two virtually identical Fidelity biotech funds – except one is designed for direct investment and the other caters to investors being served by financial advisors.
You’d expect those who invested directly would engage in ill-advised market-timing and more severely underperform what the fund actually returned, compared to those who were advised to patiently buy and hold. Instead, investors in the advisor-tailored fund did worse in Zweig’s illustration. How come?
The illustration Zweig used may well have been a case of some market-timing investors getting lucky during a specific timeframe. But another culprit to consider may be the “advisors” recommending the advisor-tilted fund.
Zweig describes: “Not all advisers chase performance, but all too many still do. Buying what’s hot and dumping what’s not, they are no less human than their clients.”
In describing what a good advisor should be doing for you, Zweig quotes Dimensional Fund Advisors’ co-CEO Dave Butler: “Advisers [should] provide a human element that gives clients confidence and comfort in not deviating from a plan.”
Zweig elaborates:
“[Y]ou should hire an adviser not for his or her investing prowess, but to help organize your finances, prioritize your goals, minimize your taxes, and navigate the shoals of retirement and estate planning. Done right, those services can make you far richer — and happier — than the pipe dream of investment outperformance is likely to.”
In short, we believe a good advisor should help you avoid, not enable, your “worst enemy” tendencies. Plus, they should be even more disciplined than you are at ignoring any market-timing habits and stock-picking cravings to which they themselves may be vulnerable.
The defense rests.
If Anyone Could Beat the Market …
Pursuing an evidence-based approach to investing (as we do) includes hearing from those whose thoughts align with ours as well as those who challenge our assumptions. In that spirit, one of my recent reads was “A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street, How I Beat the Dealer and the Market,” by Edward Thorp.
That’s a big book title, from a larger-than-life author. Even if he spiced up his story with a few potential exaggerations, Thorp obviously is one of the most brilliant people you may never have heard of.
A childhood genius and young math professor turned Vegas gambler turned hedge fund manager, Thorp knew his way around the data analysis block, warning a client about Bernie Madoff’s fake trades before the news went public.
He also suggests he scooped Nobel laureate Myron Scholes and collaborator Fischer Black on their insights into how to price options and other financial risks. The implication is that Nobel prize would have been his, had he played his cards right. He doesn’t say how much he earned over his career, but in the the book, he states that Citadel Investment Group was built using his market-neutral strategy, and the managing partner was worth $5.6 billion at last count.
Then there were his casino-beating tactics – employing statistical analysis to tilt the odds in his favor, plus a few tricks up his sleeves to stay in the game (such as wearing disguises once the casinos were onto him). I found this portion of the book the most entertaining.
But what about his investment advice? If anyone could crack the code on how to consistently beat the market, you’d think it would be Edward Thorp. Instead, when he tried his hand at active stock-picking, he soon discovered the same thing we did: Stock-picking advice is worthless, after-the-fact news.
The conclusions Thorp drew from there differ from our own. One of his chapter titles says it all: “Wall Street: The Greatest Casino on Earth.” While Thorp tries to apply some of his casino-beating tactics to pursue statistically significant edges over the market, we feel there’s more compelling evidence suggesting long-term investors are better served with a less dicey approach.
“A Man for All Markets” is a fun summer read for peeking inside the mind of a mathematical whiz with a flair for living and investing on the edge. When it comes to managing your money for all markets, we continue to recommend evidence-based investing.
Welcome, Nell Swanson!
As meticulous as we are with our financial advice, we tend to be even more deliberate when adding new members to our Hill Investment Group team. Fortunately, welcoming Nell Swanson as our Chief Operating Officer (COO) was one of our easiest hiring decisions ever.
You might not immediately conclude a natural fit, given her intriguing credentials as a petroleum engineer and, most recently, an operations specialist for an oil & gas private equity firm. But here’s where it gets interesting.
Nell found us after determining that something was missing from her otherwise stellar career. She was content enough and successful enough, but she wasn’t personally connected to it or inspired by it.
So, as any good evidence-based advocate would do, she took a good, hard look around. A voracious reader with a passion for behavioral finance, it was only a matter of time before she ran across Matt Hall’s Odds On. She devoured it at once, and knew she’d found the inspiration she’d been looking for. Reaching out to Matt for career advice, the conversation quickly turned into a job interview. The rest is happy history.
“Nell blew each of us away as we met her,” says Matt. “She has so much energy and initiative, and such a rare combination of technical ability and interpersonal understanding. We soon knew we’d found the right person to be our first COO.”
You’ll find Nell based in our Houston office, where she already is making her mark by exploring new business, operational, human capital, compliance, financial and overall organizational opportunities for us. Most of all, Nell will be instrumental in helping us sustain close personal relationships with our clients even as we grow. This is mission-critical and at least as important as any numbers involved.
In her spare time, Nell is planning a fall wedding to her fiancé and pre-school classmate Walter. She enjoys working out with Walter, putting together puzzles, reading, traveling with friends and family, volunteering in her community, and drinking copious cups of coffee … cold-pressed, lightly creamed.
When she told her family about her career change, she admitted she was nervous. “They’ve always been so supportive of my past plans, I was afraid I might disappoint them by shifting gears so dramatically.” Quite the opposite, her parents felt as she did (and we do) that she should pursue wherever her passions take her. We’re so glad they’ve led her to our HIG family. Welcome, Nell!