Have you ever sat in your car in the parking lot after visiting the doctor for your annual physical and said to yourself, “Oh, I forgot to ask the doctor about X…Now it’s too late”?

We’ve all had those moments where more formal preparation would have made our meetings with doctors, lawyers, contractors, etc., more productive and valuable. Meeting with your financial advisor is no different. Preparation before your regular review can help you and the advisor. Here are five basic steps to help you prepare for the next meeting with your Hill client service advisor.

Years ago, when I taught leadership classes, one of my favorite quotes was from the Tanzanian marathoner Juma Ikangaa, who said, “The will to win means nothing without the will to prepare.” Okay, your financial review may not require the same sacrifice as training for a marathon, but taking these five steps can make you feel like your next review is a real win for you and your family.

I invite you to watch an enlightening movie with me if you’re in STL on October 5th! Originally intended as an event for our firm’s clients, we decided that we wanted to share it with others and are saving a select group of seats for friends of our firm. The 88-minute documentary on the characters who changed modern finance for the better will leave you feeling smarter and more connected to the truth of successful investing. An Academy Award-winning documentarian made the film, and it is appropriately titled Tune Out the Noise. Watch the trailer and sign up here if you’d like to enjoy it with us at the spectacular Saint Louis Art Museum Farrell Auditorium.

*If you’re not in St. Louis, let us know if you’d like information on future screenings in additional cities by emailing us here.

More reasons to attend:

• Co-CEO Dave Butler will be live in attendance for a Q&A following the movie.
• This is the first film to tackle the academic, business, and practical themes connected to modern investing.
• Tune Out the Noise has yet to be publicly available.
• The Art in the film is, in many ways, its own story.
• The score is composed by the award-winning Paul Leonard-Morgan.
• During the “back to school” season, this is an excellent way to fulfill your lifelong learning commitment.

In the heart of a bustling county fair, an extraordinary experiment unfolded, showcasing the incredible power of collective intelligence. A seemingly whimsical challenge emerged: Guess the weight of a cow on display. What initially appeared as a playful game soon transformed into a stunning demonstration of the “wisdom of crowds.”

A diverse group of fairgoers, each with varying degrees of knowledge and intuition, were asked two simple questions: How much does this cow weigh? Do you have any experience with the weight of cows? The goal was to see if anyone in the crowd could guess the correct weight and if experts would be superior to the average individual.

A fascinating phenomenon began to unfold. Although individual estimates ranged wildly, the average of all these guesses astonishingly approached the actual weight of the cow. In the end, the average guess for the non-experts was 1,287 pounds compared to the actual weight of 1,355 pounds. A difference of only 68 pounds. A bigger surprise: the expert’s average guess was less accurate at 1,272 pounds, a difference of 83 pounds.

The genius of this collective average lay in its ability to filter out errors and biases inherent in individual guesses. High estimates countered low ones, and the middle-ground approximations formed a consensus that defied the odds. This experiment showcased the concept of the “wisdom of crowds” that a diverse group’s collective knowledge can outperform the insights of any individual expert.

Translating this concept to the realm of financial markets, where stocks are traded and their prices determined, demonstrates a similar effect. The market comprises countless participants, each with their own insights, analyses, and biases. When these factors converge, the resulting stock prices tend to reflect the most accurate estimate of a company’s value at a given point in time.

This phenomenon finds its backbone in the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which proposes that stock prices encapsulate all available information. Much like the cow guessing average, EMH posits that the combined insights of countless individuals lead to fair and accurate valuations, making it incredibly challenging to outguess the market consistently. Financial markets react to new information quickly, updating prices to reflect the most up-to-date information and risks fairly. Rather than trying to outguess market prices, causing turnover, high fees, and trading costs, one is better off accepting and using market prices to your advantage. Invest in global capitalism rather than trying to outguess it.

From guessing the weight of a cow to the intricate world of financial markets, the wisdom of crowds continues to shape our understanding of collective intelligence. Just as a diverse group of fairgoers could accurately estimate the cow’s weight, the multitude of participants in financial markets work together to create prices that reflect a collective estimate of a company’s value. The efficient market hypothesis stands as a testament to the power of this concept, reminding us that while individual expertise is valuable, the aggregated insights of many can often lead to more accurate and reliable outcomes. As we navigate the complexities of the modern world, embracing the wisdom of crowds can lead to better decision-making and a higher likelihood of financial success.