How’s your billion dollar bracket doing?

You’ve likely heard about Warren Buffett’s recent NCAA basketball tournament challenge: build the perfect NCAA bracket and you could win $1 billion. Some may think Warren is crazy, but he knows that the odds of picking the perfect bracket are similar to that of picking the next great stock or fund manger—not good.

While it might be fun to wager $20 and watch the games, managing your money is far from a game. Just as Warren used the evidence to make this safe bet (there are 9.2 quintillion different potential bracket combinations), we also use the evidence to keep the odds on your side when investing.

What’s the latest on the challenge? It was over after the second day of play. Read more about the results here.

Jim Gallagher of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch included both Larry Swedroe and Matt Hall in a recent piece about the 5th anniversary of the market bottom in 2009. Jim offers this advice: “Stay calm and ignore the so-called market gurus. Nobody can predict the market.”

Click here to read the full length article and to see a special video recording of Jim Gallagher and David Nicklaus exploring lessons from 2009.

Hill Investment Group clients know our mantra Take the long view. It’s short hand for having a well-thought-out plan that’s executed consistently over time, a globally-diversified low-cost portfolio, and a long-term outlook on investment performance.

Jim Parker, Vice President at Dimensional Funds—one of our strategic partners—recently wrote a short and sweet (pun intended) article titled “The Golden Ticket Trap.” What’s that? Many investors behave a bit like the young boy Charlie in a popular children’s story about a chocolate factory, misguidedly pinning the hope for riches on finding one of a handful of golden tickets hidden among millions of candy bars. It’s the same premise behind the ever-present magazine headlines of “The 5 Hottest Stocks” and “What to buy NOW!”

This is where the Hill haystack analogy comes in. Wall Street pontificators and investment magazines try to sell the idea that they know where and how to find the needle in the haystack. Hill clients and followers know that the best path for long term success is to simply buy the entire haystack in a low-cost, tax-efficient manner, rebalance regularly, and get on with your life.

A quick glance at the article will likely reaffirm your belief in Taking the long view and illustrate that you already own the real Golden Ticket. You can view a PDF of the article here.