Details Are Part of Our Difference
Embracing the Evidence at Anheuser-Busch – Mid 1980s
529 Best Practices
David Booth on How to Choose an Advisor
The One Minute Audio Clip You Need to Hear
Category: Philosophy
Me, Roger Federer, and the Long View

I’m obsessed with tennis, but especially Wimbledon. In 2015, I fulfilled a lifelong dream to attend the event, which I consider to be the greatest tennis tournament in the world. See that white-clad speck on the left? That’s Roger Federer. You can click to enlarge the image, but he’ll still be pretty tiny.
From my perfect vantage point, it was incredibly exciting to watch Federer play in person. It was also fun to watch him from afar this year, as he added another Wimbledon Cup to the pile. Nearing age 36, he’s clearly still achieving “firsts” and “bests” that most of his 20-something competitors can only dream of.
How’s he doing that? Federer seems to be a fellow advocate for our Take the Long View® approach. Consider this Wall Street Journal commentary published just prior to his Wimbledon victory:
“Federer … will play for a grand slam title after doing something none of his top competitors here did ahead of the feature event on the tennis calendar—he took a break from competitive tennis.”
In other words, he won over the long haul by knowing when it was time to compete, and when he’d be better off staying patiently put. In his own words:
“Once you hit 30 you’ve got to look back and think, ‘How much tennis have I played? How much rest did I give my body over the years or how much training have I done? Did I do enough? Did I overdo it or not enough?’ It’s always calibrating the whole thing.”
The WSJ called this a “new playbook” for tennis. New? When it comes to investing, we’ve been running with a similar playbook for years.
Inside Dimensional: Meet the Data Dogs
In my early years with Hill Investment Group, here’s a question I would see in people’s puzzled faces almost every time I mentioned fund manager Dimensional Fund Advisors:
“Dimensional who?”
With the continued shift to evidence-based investing, the question has become something more like this:
“Who’s this ‘Dimensional Fund Advisors’ I keep hearing about?”
The name may be more familiar these days, but with their nerdy academic underpinnings and publicity-shy approach, it’s still a challenge to explain exactly what makes the firm tick. As the firm’s Investment Research Committee Chair Ken French says, “People at Dimensional care much more about getting the right answer than defending their answer.”
Fortunately, Dimensional has created a great new piece entitled “Inside Dimensional 2017.” Equal parts science, philosophy, and intellectual horsepower, it offers a fascinating tour through the firm’s inner workings – including an entire section dedicated to its “Data Dogs” and their use of computers to revolutionize the implementation of finance for investors.
Let us know if you would enjoy a behind-the-scenes peek at Dimensional’s people and culture, and we’ll gladly send you a copy of “Inside Dimensional.”
If Anyone Could Beat the Market …
Pursuing an evidence-based approach to investing (as we do) includes hearing from those whose thoughts align with ours as well as those who challenge our assumptions. In that spirit, one of my recent reads was “A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street, How I Beat the Dealer and the Market,” by Edward Thorp.
That’s a big book title, from a larger-than-life author. Even if he spiced up his story with a few potential exaggerations, Thorp obviously is one of the most brilliant people you may never have heard of.
A childhood genius and young math professor turned Vegas gambler turned hedge fund manager, Thorp knew his way around the data analysis block, warning a client about Bernie Madoff’s fake trades before the news went public.
He also suggests he scooped Nobel laureate Myron Scholes and collaborator Fischer Black on their insights into how to price options and other financial risks. The implication is that Nobel prize would have been his, had he played his cards right. He doesn’t say how much he earned over his career, but in the the book, he states that Citadel Investment Group was built using his market-neutral strategy, and the managing partner was worth $5.6 billion at last count.
Then there were his casino-beating tactics – employing statistical analysis to tilt the odds in his favor, plus a few tricks up his sleeves to stay in the game (such as wearing disguises once the casinos were onto him). I found this portion of the book the most entertaining.
But what about his investment advice? If anyone could crack the code on how to consistently beat the market, you’d think it would be Edward Thorp. Instead, when he tried his hand at active stock-picking, he soon discovered the same thing we did: Stock-picking advice is worthless, after-the-fact news.
The conclusions Thorp drew from there differ from our own. One of his chapter titles says it all: “Wall Street: The Greatest Casino on Earth.” While Thorp tries to apply some of his casino-beating tactics to pursue statistically significant edges over the market, we feel there’s more compelling evidence suggesting long-term investors are better served with a less dicey approach.
“A Man for All Markets” is a fun summer read for peeking inside the mind of a mathematical whiz with a flair for living and investing on the edge. When it comes to managing your money for all markets, we continue to recommend evidence-based investing.