“Recency” is one of the most insidious behavioral biases that can impact an investor’s ability to Take the Long View® with their investments. The name alone suggests it’s the opposite of what we’re about here at Hill Investment Group.

Those ruled by recency will disregard decades of data, and instead allow only the latest, relatively random data points to skew their view. A prime example occurs whenever purveyors of traditional active investing revisit a perennially misleading script that goes something like this: “If too many investors invest in index funds (i.e., if the market is left to run on auto-pilot), there will be nobody left to set proper pricing. Investors should revert to an active investment strategy, before it’s too late.”

Again, the argument is nothing new; if index funds were the only investment available, markets would indeed stop functioning. But with every new season, the traditional active camp seems to come up with a fresh batch of stats that supposedly signal that the end of index investing is nigh.

Recently, the focus has been on index investing inflows – or, more accurately, their reduced volume. So far this year, the deluge of dollars mostly heading out of active investing and into index/passive funds has decreased to a more orderly flow compared to 2017.

Is index investing on the wane? In this related piece, we share a quibble we do have with index investing, and why we typically favor a similar, but more direct approach for capturing scientific sources of expected return. But before anyone concludes it’s time to get more active at timing and selecting specific stock picks, here are three, recency-dispelling reads we suggest:

“Index Funds Are Going to Be Just Fine,” Barry Ritholtz, ThinkAdvisor

Our favorite excerpt: “Why must we complicate what is otherwise a simple explanation? Investors have become a little more financially literate; indexing is maturing as an investment style. Those who are hoping for a major reversal of a trend that has been 40 years in the making are very likely to be disappointed.”

“Indexing Fuss Unwarranted,” Larry Swedroe, ETF.com

Our favorite excerpt: “While it’s certainly possible that, at some point, passive investing could reach such a dominant share that price discovery would be limited, clearly, we are nowhere near that level, and almost certainly won’t be there for a very long time.”

“The growth of index investing has not made the markets less efficient,” The Economist

Our favorite excerpt: “Perhaps the growth of indexing has robbed the world of outstanding stockpickers. But it seems more likely that it has put a lot of bad managers out of business … And it is not as if the buying and selling of stocks by informed investors with opinions has ceased. The turnover of stocks has actually increased over time. Active investors are more active than ever.”

I’m obsessed with tennis. It’s mostly a healthy obsession, but this time of year, I start to slip. Why? Wimbledon, the finest tennis tournament in the world, is about to begin. It’s steeped in tradition, and yet its host, the All England Lawn and Tennis Club, isn’t afraid of innovation and science.

Whenever there’s a way to combine statistical analysis, tennis, and investing, I’m all over it. That’s why my life was transformed nearly 20 years ago, when Larry Swedroe did exactly that in the brilliant introduction to his first book (emphasis mine):

“After making what I thought was a great shot, a forehand that landed right in the backhand corner of my opponent, my teaching pro said, ‘That shot will be your worst enemy.’ While it was an exceptional shot, he explained, it was not a high percentage shot for a good ‘weekend player.’ Remembering how good that shot felt, I would try to repeat it. Unfortunately, I would be successful on a very infrequent basis. The pro asked me if I wanted to make great shots or would I rather win matches? (I thought that one was the cause of the other.)”

Playing the winner’s game is what the pro was getting at as he cautioned Larry about falling in love with his special and rare shot. Winning calls for consistent and disciplined play. When players go for shots beyond their skills, they’re playing a loser’s game. This decades-old analogy goes back to a book by Dr. Simon Ramo, Extraordinary Tennis for the Ordinary Player.

With this background, you’ll know why the following ad is so meaningful to our firm. As a minor sponsor for the April 2018 Men’s Clay Court Championship, Hill Investment Group was proud to support an event that has been in play for more than a century – and held near our Houston office since 2001. As our sponsorship ad expressed, we enjoy helping investors play a winning game, by embracing a “long view” game plan.

In one of our recent posts, “You Need a Therapist,” Matt Hall described how we first connected with financial therapist Marilyn Wechter, MSW, and how much we’ve enjoyed collaborating with her ever since. This month, we thought it would be fun to share some of the ways we’ve been personally inspired by Marilyn. How have we used what we’ve learned from her – here in the office and at home? Read on to find out.

Rick Hill – One key takeaway from Marilyn has been how to share your financial values with your family, especially your children. How you spend your money communicates your values. Also, you can start talking to your children about money when they are very young; just tailor the conversation accordingly. Family meetings are important as well, although any communication is usually better than none. Marilyn once told me she’d conducted more than 1,000 family meetings and not one of them was a failure.

John Reagan – Marilyn has a way of putting things in perspective. For example, she’s helped me better balance my time and energy among the people and projects that are most important to me at work and home. “Live a little” are often good words to live by.

Nell Schiffer – Marilyn taught me that anxiety is contagious, which has been a simple but inspiring idea for me. We know that anxiety feels bad, but knowing that doesn’t always motivate us to let go of it. Realizing that our own anxiety can infect others is a powerful force for change, plus it reduces your own stress.

Buddy Reisinger – The most important thing I’ve learned from Marilyn is how to listen to others at a level I didn’t know I could. It’s still a work in progress, especially at home! But deeper listening has helped me better appreciate where others are coming from, why they feel the way they do, how they got where they are today, and where they’d like to go next. I’ve gotten better at stopping myself from interjecting before the other person has finished their thoughts.

Matt Hall – We all hold a mirror up to others. Am I intentional about what I am reflecting back? That’s my favorite lesson from Marilyn. She uses the example of a child learning to walk. If I hold out encouraging arms, a toddler will often smile and keep walking. If I project fear or doubt, most will sit down. The analogy holds true in our adult relationships too. I always try to remember that as I spend time with the important people in my life.