2019 served as a reminder of just how unpredictable the market is. It’s crystal clear to observers that the prediction game is often a losing one for investors. Our friends at Dimensional wrote an insightful piece on the futility of forecasting. We think the story and the data shared here are both worth your attention. (Estimated reading time of 5-7 minutes)

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If you had the choice between a premium chocolate truffle for 15 cents or a Hershey’s Kiss for a penny, which would you choose?

If you’re like most people (75%), you’ll gladly splurge on the truffle. 

Now, consider a different scenario. The prices have been discounted by a penny each: You can buy the premium chocolate truffle for 14 cents, or get a Hershey’s Kiss for free.

Astonishingly, 69% of people will opt for the Hershey’s Kiss simply because it’s free. How could something as insignificant as a penny determine whether people enjoy a rare delicacy versus a chunk of foil-covered sugar you can find in any checkout aisle?

These are the questions Dan Ariely explores in Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions.

Most of us fancy ourselves as savvy decision-makers, capable of seeing through finely crafted sales pitches, advertising slogans, and faulty advice. But as Ariely reminds us, the human brain is a flawed instrument that drives us to behave in ways contradicting our self-interest—often without us knowing about it.

From planning meals to planning vacations, buying candy bars to houses, we consistently overpay, underestimate, and procrastinate – and we can’t help it. Horrifying! 

But there’s good news: Our misguided behaviors are neither random nor senseless. As Ariely notes, they’re systematic and predictable—they make us “predictably irrational.”

At the risk of sounding too Zen-like, admitting you don’t have total control of your thoughts and behaviors gives you more control than the person who’s convinced they never make mistakes. Keeping that in mind, here are three key takeaways from Predictably Irrational that can untangle the wires in your brain:  

Put important decisions and habits on autopilot: This is like a cheat code for beating procrastination. For example, we help clients set up automatic savings plans to avoid the “I’ll do that someday” trap.

Remember to be suspicious of “free”: The prospect of getting something for nothing is powerful. Truthfully though, everything comes with a price tag. A free lunch might be used as leverage for a favor down the road. You got “free” shipping because a pop-up told you to stuff your cart with items you don’t want or need. Our encouragement? Try getting curious about how you are paying for any “free” item offered to you. It might help you make more informed choices.  

Strategically reduce your choices: Sounds counterintuitive, but when people have too many options, they freeze up and make suboptimal decisions. But the antidote isn’t learning to make better decisions—it’s eliminating the ones that don’t matter. At Hill Investment Group, we boil down decades of research to give clients only the relevant information.

We’ve come across plenty of books about behavioral economics that are mind-numbingly complex and laden with jargon. This isn’t one of them. Ariely’s writing is as informative as an academic lecture and isn’t boring.

Once you dive into this book, you’ll never make decisions the same way again.

You’re busy.

Not a minute goes by without a notification, a phone call, or a person asking for “ a quick second” vying for your attention. At times, life can feel like a treadmill that moves faster and faster— sometimes making you wonder how much of that movement equates to real forward motion.

It should come as no surprise that the distracted, divided life can put a strain on our relationships. Not just at the office, but with our loved ones. When we feel compelled to micro-manage the details, it’s impossible to devote sustained attention to any one important task or person.

What can possibly be done?

The answer may lie in The Power of Full Engagement, a book written nearly two decades ago by a performance psychologist and a renowned business consultant. If you give it a read, you’ll realize how seamlessly the lessons apply to cultivating healthy relationships, as well as a healthy work life. 

Here are our top three takeaways from the book:

1. Energy is often more valuable than time.

Time management is certainly important for any sustainable relationship or career. But as authors Loehr and Schwartz note, understanding how to effectively channel the energy you have during your waking hours, as well as your time, can transform every aspect of your life.

“The number of hours in a day is fixed, but the quantity and quality of energy available to us is not,” say the authors. “It is our most precious resource. The more we take responsibility for the energy we bring to the world, the more empowered and productive we become.”

2. It’s OK to disengage

Most of us would like to live our lives fully engaged from dawn to dusk and put forth 100% effort at every waking moment. But truthfully, that’s not sustainable. We need to practice disengaging: from work, from the glow of the screen, and yes, even from loved ones. 

Taking a true break might feel uncomfortable at first, but it’s the key to restoring balance in all aspects of life. Take a walk. Read a book. Watch the sunset. We predict the important people in your world will be able to tell the difference.

3. Treat rest with the same respect as action

The average human has a “high performance mode” of about 90 minutes. In this window, we can remain alert, creative, and resilient. And then there’s a wall. Motivational speakers might tell you to push through the fatigue, but science begs to differ.

After 90 minutes of intense activity (this can range from holding a conversation to hiking a mountain) the brain and body need a rest period of about 20 minutes. This quick recovery maintains your ultradian rhythm (the ebb and flow of energy).

At Hill Investment Group, we call this “Tea Time,” which one of our other favorite authors Laura Vanderkam referenced in her podcast a few months ago.

One of the main points in the book is gaining energy from regularly identifying and revisiting your core values. We have found this to be a powerful energy source.

We hope you find The Power of Full Engagement as valuable as our team has. Got a favorite book of your own? Shoot us a note – we are always looking for recommendations!  

Now, close your browser and open a book.