Featured entries from our Journal

Details Are Part of Our Difference

Embracing the Evidence at Anheuser-Busch – Mid 1980s

529 Best Practices

David Booth on How to Choose an Advisor

The One Minute Audio Clip You Need to Hear

Category: People

Play Ball! (Houston Astros Style)

When I’m not busy helping people build long-term wealth via evidence-based investing, in my daydreams, I’m a starting pitcher in the major leagues.

Admittedly, if my dreams ever come true, I’ll probably throw out my shoulder on the third pitch, after giving up a couple of home runs. But besides that technicality, there actually are a number of similarities between my real day job and my fantasy career. I know this, because the Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow happens to be a fan of Matt Hall’s Odds On book. He even wrote an endorsement for the book, and he has stayed in touch with us ever since.

As we’ve covered before, author Michael Lewis published his now-iconic book Moneyball in 2003. Both the book and the award-winning motion picture showcase how Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane employed empirical evidence over expert opinion, studied patience over rapid reaction, and cost control over splashy spending to take his underdog team in a dramatically new direction on a shoestring budget.

Sounds a lot like what we aim to do for investors, doesn’t it? But a happy Hollywood ending is one thing. Can the strategy really work over time in baseball, or was it a sensational flash in the pan?

That’s where additional data points from Luhnow come in, when he chose to take Beane’s analytical approach one step further with “extreme Moneyball,” as described in this 2014 Bloomberg piece. Similar to the A’s, the Astros were underperforming at the time – big time. They literally had the worst record in baseball EVER during the first two years of Luhnow’s tenure.

Then came his fresh, evidence-based approach. The Astros made the American League playoffs in 2015 and, as I draft this piece, this recent Wall Street Journal piece describes Luhnow’s data-driven shift to maintain the team’s home run averages while reducing its strike-outs. The results so far? The WSJ reports: “More than 40% of the way through the season, the Astros own the best record in the majors, blitzing the competition with a lineup that defies all logic.”

Well, not all logic.  The article also describes Luhnow as the “architect of perhaps the sport’s most data-driven organization.”

If you ask me, that probably explains it. Will the Astros take their first World Series in their 55-year history? Either way, come what may, I look forward to seeing what they have in store for 2017!

Welcome, Nell Swanson!

As meticulous as we are with our financial advice, we tend to be even more deliberate when adding new members to our Hill Investment Group team. Fortunately, welcoming Nell Swanson as our Chief Operating Officer (COO) was one of our easiest hiring decisions ever.

You might not immediately conclude a natural fit, given her intriguing credentials as a petroleum engineer and, most recently, an operations specialist for an oil & gas private equity firm. But here’s where it gets interesting.

Nell found us after determining that something was missing from her otherwise stellar career. She was content enough and successful enough, but she wasn’t personally connected to it or inspired by it.

So, as any good evidence-based advocate would do, she took a good, hard look around. A voracious reader with a passion for behavioral finance, it was only a matter of time before she ran across Matt Hall’s Odds On. She devoured it at once, and knew she’d found the inspiration she’d been looking for. Reaching out to Matt for career advice, the conversation quickly turned into a job interview. The rest is happy history.

“Nell blew each of us away as we met her,” says Matt. “She has so much energy and initiative, and such a rare combination of technical ability and interpersonal understanding. We soon knew we’d found the right person to be our first COO.”

You’ll find Nell based in our Houston office, where she already is making her mark by exploring new business, operational, human capital, compliance, financial and overall organizational opportunities for us. Most of all, Nell will be instrumental in helping us sustain close personal relationships with our clients even as we grow. This is mission-critical and at least as important as any numbers involved.

In her spare time, Nell is planning a fall wedding to her fiancé and pre-school classmate Walter. She enjoys working out with Walter, putting together puzzles, reading, traveling with friends and family, volunteering in her community, and drinking copious cups of coffee … cold-pressed, lightly creamed.

When she told her family about her career change, she admitted she was nervous. “They’ve always been so supportive of my past plans, I was afraid I might disappoint them by shifting gears so dramatically.” Quite the opposite, her parents felt as she did (and we do) that she should pursue wherever her passions take her. We’re so glad they’ve led her to our HIG family. Welcome, Nell!

A Presentation With a View

When Odds On was born, we quickly realized that one of the powerful benefits of having a book in hand is it gets our foot in the door at public and professional venues alike. By having opportunities to “teach the teachers” about evidence-based investing, we could spread the word faster through the power of exponential word of mouth.

That’s one reason it was fun and fulfilling to present “The Evolution of Evidence-Based Investing” to a group of attorneys at the century-old, St. Louis law firm Lewis Rice earlier this month. (The awesome view of downtown St. Louis, Arch and all, didn’t hurt any either!)

Looking back to the 1950s, it’s eye-opening to realize how far investing has come since then. That was back before computer-generated data was available to help us understand the powerful efficiencies available in our capital markets. It meant that trying to pick this or that stock was not only the typical way to invest … it was mostly the only way possible. Low-cost index funds weren’t even available until the 1970s, but what a ride, as today we’re nearing 40% of the market resembling our approach.

Are you looking for a speaker for one of your organization’s events? Let us know if we can tell you more about the evolution of investing. Not to worry: Having an awesome view is optional.


PS: Are you wondering about that weird square drawing in the photo above? Check out our “Illustration of the Month”  post. 

Featured entries from our Journal

Details Are Part of Our Difference

Embracing the Evidence at Anheuser-Busch – Mid 1980s

529 Best Practices

David Booth on How to Choose an Advisor

The One Minute Audio Clip You Need to Hear

Hill Investment Group