Featured entries from our Journal

Details Are Part of Our Difference

Embracing the Evidence at Anheuser-Busch – Mid 1980s

529 Best Practices

David Booth on How to Choose an Advisor

The One Minute Audio Clip You Need to Hear

Category: Education

Illustration of the Month: In the Markets, Average Is Uncommon

In the wake of February’s recent market volatility (after a nice, long lull), we thought this would be a good time to remind our readers how unusual it is for markets to deliver their “normal” average returns in any given year.

For example, while the S&P 500 index has delivered average returns of around 10% per year since 1926, the six orange dots in our “Illustration of the Month” below are the only years it’s actually toed the line of its long-term average.

What’s the real “norm”? Expect volatility far more often than not along the road to future growth.

Click on image to enlarge it.

HIG’s View on Market Volatility

By the time you’re reading this, the market volatility that burst onto the scene and into the headlines in early February may already feel like ancient news. Or not.

As Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig said in his February 5th column, “The Stock Market Didn’t Get Tested – You Did.” To make good use of the stress test, we decided to respond to the events while they were still fresh. Here, we share our thoughts to this common question of the day:

“When someone asks what has happened in the market today (February 5th), what would a HIG employee say?”


 

Rick Hill – This is a particularly good time to ignore breaking news. Market declines are expected. Historically we’ve seen declines as steep as 25–30% about every five years. Whatever happens next, the best strategy for investors who have a planned asset allocation is to stay with it. That gives you the best odds of achieving your financial goals.

Buddy Reisinger – Hey, did you watch the Super Bowl? (I hope so.) Did you watch it on a huge, flat screen? (Of course.) No wonder Best Buy and all the other electronics stores were offering huge sales on the latest TVs and home theaters right before game day. Well, guess what? The market is on sale right now and, like most sales, it’s probably temporary. If your investment plan calls for it, now is the perfect time to buy while stocks are on sale. And if you’re already all set, remember the Long View is looking up.

Nell Schiffer – Look at it this way: Stocks are on sale. Remember, your best chance to make more money (if that’s your goal) is by being on the patient side of the trades when everyone else gets scared. The secret formula to achieve that: Save habitually, invest globally, tilt toward small, cheap companies … and stay put. Repeat until rich.

Matt Hall – When thinking about investing, I try not to think in days. We are interested in decades and longer. “C’mon Matt, really?” Yep, the smart money is patient and disciplined; we teach and have been rewarded for both. The great Warren Buffett said, “Our favorite holding period is forever.” I’m with him. It reminds me of our firm’s motto: Take the Long View.®

Katie Ackerman – It’s true, the market can be a crazy thing. But we encourage our clients to stick to the plan we’ve created together. Knee-jerk reactions often lose money. All of that noise you see and hear in the popular press … It sells more magazines than our “boring” plan to help you become and stay rich.”

 

John Reagan – Honestly? I didn’t even know the market went down until you asked the question. I was busy taking care of our clients’ long-term needs, helping them focus on things we and they can control. After-hours, I prefer to run after my two young boys instead of the stock market.


So there you have it. Whether market volatility lays low again for a while or it’s recurring as you read this, we hope you’ll find our “live-action” answers worthwhile whenever you may be wondering (or worrying) about what the market might do next.

And by the way, despite the common themes you see throughout our responses … No, we did not cheat and look at each other’s answers on this test!

Illustration of the Month: A Vertical View of Global Returns

We encourage investors to mostly look past annual returns and keep their eyes on the market’s long-term performance. But it can be helpful to consider annual reports too, as long as we do so within this greater perspective.

Speaking of perspective, there’s also global versus domestic viewpoints. The Dimensional Fund Advisors chart below, ranking 2017 return sources, illustrates why we continue to believe it’s best to globally diversify your risks and expected returns around the world. While the U.S. S&P 500 performed nicely in 2017, returning just under 22 percent, notice how many international markets did even better, with emerging markets significantly outpacing all the rest.

Of course, from one year to the next, the reverse can easily be true. So, to quote Nick Murray, an industry thought leader:

“We will never own enough of any one idea to make a killing in it. We will never own enough of any one idea to risk being killed by it.”

This is what diversification is for.

Featured entries from our Journal

Details Are Part of Our Difference

Embracing the Evidence at Anheuser-Busch – Mid 1980s

529 Best Practices

David Booth on How to Choose an Advisor

The One Minute Audio Clip You Need to Hear

Hill Investment Group