Who will you be rooting for in Super Bowl LIII on February 3^rd – the Patriots or the Rams? Either way, you’ll be among millions of fans tuning in for the big game.

That means the pressure is on, for both teams. You’d think this would encourage players and coaches to give it everything they’ve got. By some measures, I’m sure they do. But I also believe there’s a secret weapon neither team will be taking advantage of: Forgoing the option to punt.

What if more coaches were willing to let convention-challenging research be their guide? They might end up featured in an HBO “Real Sports” segment. That’s what happened to Pulaski Academy Head Coach Kevin Kelley from Little Rock, Arkansas. He earned a reputation for being “the coach who never punts,” after he decided to heed the data, and employ an atypical tactic of almost always going for the fourth down instead of punting. Check out the trailer here:

Of course, we feel the same sort of data-driven strategy and disciplined perspective should be applied to your evidence-based investing. So do others, which is why our friends at AQR featured a conversation between AQR Principal Toby Moskowitz and the same Coach Kelley in one of their podcasts, “Hot Hands and Cold Feet.” (Fast-forward to minute 10:00 to hear the specific conversation.)

While we call Kelley evidence-based, others have called him “crazy,” “insane” or “mad scientist.” If he is, his results don’t show it. In his conversation with Moskowitz, Kelley notes his record at Pulaski Academy is 179 wins/25 losses, with seven state titles in the past 15 years.

Consider these insights as you enjoy Super Bowl LIII. Consider it, too, as you stick with your best-laid investment plans in our competitive markets. I say, go ahead and let others call you crazy, if that’s what it takes to achieve your personal financial goals.

There are so many songs, books and movies about what it would be like to travel in time. What if we told you there is one way you actually can – sort of – make good use of time travel with respect to your wealth?

Remember our friend John Jennings, and his Interesting Fact of the Day (IFOD) blog? John recently covered this subject in his IFOD post, “Discounting the Future,” and how this phenomenon can impact your personal and financial habits.

For example, when his daughter Claire decided to put off doing her homework, she told him she was “going to let future Claire worry about the project.” (I kind of hope my daughter Harper isn’t reading this!) She was prioritizing the instant gratification of enjoying her current leisure time, and discounting the more distant reward of having the project already completed by the time “future Claire” was wishing she could goof off.

When it comes to our money, discounting the future can trick us into treating future dollars as less valuable than current ones. For example, if someone offers you $100 today or $200 six months from now, you may opt for the instant cash, discounting the extra $100 your future self would have enjoyed. Which choice you’ll prefer can vary, depending on how far in the future you’re being asked to wait, as well as how much money is involved.

If we haven’t yet nailed the idea, please take a minute to read John’s phenomenal post, and be sure to look for comedian Jerry Seinfeld’s explanation of the concept. Before you know it, you’ll be asking yourself questions about what your future self will think about your current self for the next few weeks – and likely making better decisions for the long view.

It takes only a glance at Dimensional Fund Advisors’ 2018 market summary to recognize global markets didn’t leave anyone applauding in the end. The volatility put the popular press in a tizzy (with no certainty on what lies ahead). Not surprisingly, our response has been to double down on our perspective on how to maintain “unruffled serenity” in volatile markets.

For example, in our fourth quarter client letter, we revisited an important, annually updated Dimensional chart depicting yearly market premiums since 1928. We’ve shared similar charts before, but it remains worth repeating whenever the going gets tough. As we wrote in our letter, “No one complains when they finish the year with stock returns much higher than average, but the typical investor has a hard time handling a big down year.”

We share an excerpt from our client letter today, hoping we can help you, too, Take the Long View®.

January 2019

Unruffled Serenity and Taking the Long View

Why would an investor want to accept wild, short-term swings in the markets? Because investors are paid for enduring those swings. It’s that simple and that hard.

Because stocks ended 2018 with a series of dramatic gyrations, we decided to illustrate just how normal these big market movements really are. The following chart, which shows the annual performance of the U.S. stock market since 1928, illustrates why it’s worth maintaining a long view and disciplined investment strategy.

The blue bars indicate years in which the broad U.S. market delivered an average return above T-bills (i.e., a positive premium). The dark blue bars indicate years when a positive equity premium was within a 2% range of its long-term average (represented by the dotted black line). On the other side, the red bars indicate years in which the market underperformed T-bills (i.e., a negative premium).

The first thing to notice is that on average, the annual market premium has been strongly positive and there have been more years of overperformance than underperformance. But in any given year, the U.S. market premium has varied widely—sometimes producing extreme positive or negative performance relative to T-bills. It’s worth repeating: The premium has been within 2 percentage points of the long-term annual average in only four years since 1928.

As savvy long view investors, we know that if we want a long-term average annual premium from the equity portion of our portfolios we have to expect and endure returns in any given year that are wildly above or below that average. No one complains when they finish the year with stock returns much higher than average, but the typical investor has a hard time handling a big down year. What separates us is knowing that we win over the long run by embracing this volatility. We win because in the boring math of investing, the long-term owner of global capitalism is likely to end up in the top decile of all investors. It’s simple, but it ain’t easy. Maybe we should call it a serenity premium?