Timing the market can take on many different forms, but we’ve all done it at some point in our lives, even me. Sometimes the market is at an all-time high and we feel there is no way it can keep going up for much longer. We decide to wait for that market correction before investing. Sometimes there is turmoil in the world, markets are falling, and we want to wait to invest until that volatility subsides. In the moment, it always seems to feel obvious what the correct “market timing” strategy is.

Unfortunately, in the real world, timing the market is extremely difficult to do. As a firm of investment professionals, we recently tried to artificially time the market during a team Zoom…and we failed miserably. We used the website: Try to Time the Market to test ourselves. The website simulates a random 10-year historical return sequence from the US stock market. Over those ten years, you get one chance to sell and go to cash, and one chance to buy back into the market. You will beat the market return if you pick the right time to get out and get back in. Sounds easy, just sell when the market is at a high, and buy when it’s at a low.

As a firm, we only outperformed the market 40% of the time. Meaning 60% of the time, we would have been better off if we had just stayed invested the entire 10-year period. To make matters worse, when we did beat the market, it was only by a few percentage points, but when we lost to the market, it was usually by 50+%.

The game only takes a minute to play. Give it a few tries, and see how you fair.  We’d love to hear how you did.

Why did we fail at trying to time the market? On average, the market goes up a few hundredths of a percent every day. This means that each day your money is out of the market you are losing out on that potential gain. If the market actually went up a tiny bit every day, no one would ever think to try and time it. However, the volatility of the market makes trying to time it so enticing. If you just avoid some of those bad days, months, or years, it can make a drastic difference in your net wealth. The trouble is if you miss out on those great days, months, or years, it can also make a drastic difference in your net wealth. Given, on average, that the market goes up every day, you are better off not trying to play the timing game and simply stay invested. 

You’re better off taking the long view.

This month we have one item we are sharing. It’s that important and that good. How do I know? At Hill Investment Group, we’ve been doing a series of morning Zoom calls for a few years now, and this piece from our own Charles Kafoglis is viewed as one of the best we’ve ever had. Charles won’t tell you this because he’s too humble, but his five-minute video is something everyone should see. 

Why? It frames the magic of compounding in an easier way to digest and incorporate into your own life. Whether you are building towards financial independence or already there, I encourage you to watch our natural teacher, Charles Kafoglis, and his talk on “The Greatest Double.”

Summary of Topics:

• Example of doubling from one of Charles’s favorite teachers
• What it looks like to double every ten years
• Phases of life – learn, earn, adjourn
• The impact of the last double
• Do you have 3, 4, or more doubles?

To kick the year off on the right foot, we wanted to share some of the most effective measures you can take this year to protect your financial data. Some of our list will be reminders you’ve heard before, and others will be new ideas. Here are our suggestions as you tighten up your personal protection plan for 2023:

1. Enable Two-Factor Authentication: We know it can be a pain, but two-factor authentication adds an extra layer of security by requiring a second form of verification (e.g., a code sent to your phone) and your password. It’s worth it.
2. Use anti-virus and anti-malware software: Make sure that your device has anti-virus and anti-malware software installed and that it is kept up to date.
3. Don’t use public Wi-Fi: Public Wi-Fi networks are often unsecured, making them easy targets for hackers. Avoid using public Wi-Fi networks for sensitive financial transactions. An alternative to using public Wi-Fi is using your cellphone hotspot for a secure connection.
4. Be wary of phish!: Scammers often use phishing emails and text messages to trick people into giving away their personal information. Be wary of unsolicited messages, and never click on links or enter personal information into a website unless you are sure it is legitimate. Treat email as guilty until proven innocent.
5. Secure your device: Use a 6-digit passcode or biometric (fingerprint) to lock your mobile device, don’t share your device with anyone, and only install apps from the official app store.
6. Use a password manager: A password manager can help you create and manage strong, unique passwords for all your accounts, making it easier to protect your personal information.
7. Use strong, unique passwords: Use a strong, unique password for all your financial accounts and change them regularly. Avoid using easily guessable information such as your name, kids’ birthdate, or pet names.
8. Avoid communicating sensitive information over email: Share sensitive information like logins, account numbers, and birthdates only in secure portals or using safe links.  

By taking these steps, you can help keep yourself protected while online. If you are curious about how we protect your information here at Hill Investment Group, call me at 314-448-4023.