Since many of the market’s long-term rewards come from the risks you’re willing to take, making serious money usually hurts — at least when it appears to be out of favor with the “consensus.” Morgan Housel’s recent blog post, “Every Great Investment Hurts,” offers a fresh perspective on the source of that pain.

To trade profitably in highly competitive markets, you not only must make the right calls on future pricing, you’re best off making them when most other investors think you’re wrong. That’s what this simple diagram from Housel’s post suggests.

How do you end up in that profitable sweet spot? You can try guessing correctly almost all the time (super hard). Or you can embrace evidence-based investing, which should guide you toward being correct more often than not … if you stick with your plans. That can still be hard, but at least the odds are stacked in your favor.